Wednesday, August 02, 2006
Doomsday Predictions
The NY Times (Required registration...) said that "Doomsday can be understated". It brought up the bird flu, the Blackout from 2003, and the virus in the 1930s that killed 30 million people. Thanks to SlashDot user Phat_Tony for his arguments that follow, can "doomsday be understated"?
No it can't.
None of those things listed are even close to Doomsday. They're barely even little blips on the radar screen of history. Out of 6 billion people, the computer virus and the blackout killed how many? These things were moderate inconveniences for thousands, not inescapable death for billions.
Even the flu killed 30 million out of almost 2,000 million, or 1.5%. Yeah, sucks to be them, but killing 1.5% of the population didn't exactly move homo sapiens to the endangered species list.
A modern super-bug could be terrible. No one knows if the worst case scenario is the death of millions or into the billions, but I bet you'll have a hard time finding biologists who think a bug could show up that kills ALL humans. It not only would have to spread like mad, have a long incubation period, be untreatable, and not have any people with any natural immunity, it would also have to be able to get through gas-masks and biohazard suits, infiltrate our best air filters, cross oceans to desert islands people had isolated themselves on (and shoot anyone who tries to get near). And with all that going on, I wouldn't call in understated anymore.
The real Doomsday fears list is pretty short- Nuclear War, Meteor, other improbable astronomical events like supernova. Global warming is NOT a doomsday scenario. It might be a "things are really going to suck" scenario, and I'm not saying we shouldn't be trying to stop it, but it's not going to KILL everybody, it just might make it unbearably hot, ruin crops, cause flooding, worsen natural disasters, etc. But Earth's spent many millions of years being hotter than our global warming forecasts, and life goes on. The real doomsday scenarios ARE NOT understated things that creep up on us- pretty much by definition, little gradual changes are things we adapt too, anticipate, measure, study, and, if they're really getting serous, do something about before we all die. We aren't going to suddenly switch from a negative feedback cycle to an unstoppable positive feedback cycle that destroys everything. If that were in the cards, it would have happened in the past 5 billion years. Our systems (biological and social) are much more robust and stable than that. Realistic doomsday scenarios are big, colossal, horrific events that are anything but understated.
Can you think of very many scenarios that are actual extinction-level events? ¶ 2:15 PM
No it can't.
None of those things listed are even close to Doomsday. They're barely even little blips on the radar screen of history. Out of 6 billion people, the computer virus and the blackout killed how many? These things were moderate inconveniences for thousands, not inescapable death for billions.
Even the flu killed 30 million out of almost 2,000 million, or 1.5%. Yeah, sucks to be them, but killing 1.5% of the population didn't exactly move homo sapiens to the endangered species list.
A modern super-bug could be terrible. No one knows if the worst case scenario is the death of millions or into the billions, but I bet you'll have a hard time finding biologists who think a bug could show up that kills ALL humans. It not only would have to spread like mad, have a long incubation period, be untreatable, and not have any people with any natural immunity, it would also have to be able to get through gas-masks and biohazard suits, infiltrate our best air filters, cross oceans to desert islands people had isolated themselves on (and shoot anyone who tries to get near). And with all that going on, I wouldn't call in understated anymore.
The real Doomsday fears list is pretty short- Nuclear War, Meteor, other improbable astronomical events like supernova. Global warming is NOT a doomsday scenario. It might be a "things are really going to suck" scenario, and I'm not saying we shouldn't be trying to stop it, but it's not going to KILL everybody, it just might make it unbearably hot, ruin crops, cause flooding, worsen natural disasters, etc. But Earth's spent many millions of years being hotter than our global warming forecasts, and life goes on. The real doomsday scenarios ARE NOT understated things that creep up on us- pretty much by definition, little gradual changes are things we adapt too, anticipate, measure, study, and, if they're really getting serous, do something about before we all die. We aren't going to suddenly switch from a negative feedback cycle to an unstoppable positive feedback cycle that destroys everything. If that were in the cards, it would have happened in the past 5 billion years. Our systems (biological and social) are much more robust and stable than that. Realistic doomsday scenarios are big, colossal, horrific events that are anything but understated.
Can you think of very many scenarios that are actual extinction-level events? ¶ 2:15 PM
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Dave and I were just talking about how Aerosmith have been robots for over a decade now. I guess it's already happening.
Ok, you really want a realistic way of taking out everyone?
Here's the plan:
The main point will be to poison people's water, but we need to make sure people don't figure this out until it's too late. So...
Poison the world's water supply...this is not really as difficult as it sounds. If you can find a poison that will stick with the water through the filtration process, then you only have a few hundred supplies in the entire world to hit (as we all draw from them).
Simultaneously, or close to simultaneously, knock out the world's power. Communication is one of the main keys to being able to conquer any disaster/enemy; if you can severely limit or destroy this possibility, chances for success increase exponentially. Again, much easier than one would imagine, the world's power grid (especially USA) is very tempermental and if you knew the main points to hit, it could be done (Germany would be the toughest to knock out since they have all that fruity wind-power).
Launching a ton of computer virus's designed to crash systems wouldn't hurt just in case the power isn't out for as long as you'd like.
Now, you don't want people to be able to figure out it is the water, so you need to make people think it is something else. My suggestion would be to make people think it is biological warefare by dropping "bombs" on major cities that mostly just give off smoke, but with enough traces of poison that people do in fact think they are the problem.
So, you just crippled pretty much the whole world, how do you finish the job? Easy, while the world is in chaos, you are prepared to take advantage and are seizing military supplies from as many places as you can...then when things settle down a bit, you go in and eradicate whatever/whoever is left.
So, what type of force would this take?
I would imagine you'd need a team of chemists (let's say 20) to develop and manufacture the poison. Another few hundred to distribute(to be safe, let's say 300). Another few hundred to take out power(300). An army of computer hackers to develop virus's (let's say 200). And, finally, some type of militant group to seize power and eradicate anything left (let's say 2000 or so). And of course, a few people with the knowledge and skill to coordinate and pull something of this magnitude off (another 20 or so people).
That's 2900 people and after you take out everyone else, you could easily instigate civil war among the troops and take them out as well. If you want to make sure you remain safe, just set it up so that you say you have safely stashed their families and on a safehouse island along with enough beautiful women to repopulate the Earth (they need a purpose to follow you, but it is of course not true). Which means that yes, your 2900 people are all male so that you don't run the risk of repopulating the Earth that way. Now, even when they find out you are lying, it is too late and human's are more or less extinct.
End of story.
Here's the plan:
The main point will be to poison people's water, but we need to make sure people don't figure this out until it's too late. So...
Poison the world's water supply...this is not really as difficult as it sounds. If you can find a poison that will stick with the water through the filtration process, then you only have a few hundred supplies in the entire world to hit (as we all draw from them).
Simultaneously, or close to simultaneously, knock out the world's power. Communication is one of the main keys to being able to conquer any disaster/enemy; if you can severely limit or destroy this possibility, chances for success increase exponentially. Again, much easier than one would imagine, the world's power grid (especially USA) is very tempermental and if you knew the main points to hit, it could be done (Germany would be the toughest to knock out since they have all that fruity wind-power).
Launching a ton of computer virus's designed to crash systems wouldn't hurt just in case the power isn't out for as long as you'd like.
Now, you don't want people to be able to figure out it is the water, so you need to make people think it is something else. My suggestion would be to make people think it is biological warefare by dropping "bombs" on major cities that mostly just give off smoke, but with enough traces of poison that people do in fact think they are the problem.
So, you just crippled pretty much the whole world, how do you finish the job? Easy, while the world is in chaos, you are prepared to take advantage and are seizing military supplies from as many places as you can...then when things settle down a bit, you go in and eradicate whatever/whoever is left.
So, what type of force would this take?
I would imagine you'd need a team of chemists (let's say 20) to develop and manufacture the poison. Another few hundred to distribute(to be safe, let's say 300). Another few hundred to take out power(300). An army of computer hackers to develop virus's (let's say 200). And, finally, some type of militant group to seize power and eradicate anything left (let's say 2000 or so). And of course, a few people with the knowledge and skill to coordinate and pull something of this magnitude off (another 20 or so people).
That's 2900 people and after you take out everyone else, you could easily instigate civil war among the troops and take them out as well. If you want to make sure you remain safe, just set it up so that you say you have safely stashed their families and on a safehouse island along with enough beautiful women to repopulate the Earth (they need a purpose to follow you, but it is of course not true). Which means that yes, your 2900 people are all male so that you don't run the risk of repopulating the Earth that way. Now, even when they find out you are lying, it is too late and human's are more or less extinct.
End of story.
# posted by 
: August 03, 2006 10:36 AM
: August 03, 2006 10:36 AM
I found one hole in your plan, Osama. You have neglected to get rid of Matthew McConaughey. If you have ever watched "Sahara" you will discover that Matthew McConaughey's wiley ways can save the worlds water supply from killing off all humans.
If you first assassinate Matthew McConaughey, your plan just might work.
If you first assassinate Matthew McConaughey, your plan just might work.
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