Jason Moran
Friday, September 19, 2008
  Great Depression II
In the 20s and 30s W.W.I was simple the World War. Maybe we'll start referring to 1929-1932 as G.D.I because it was simply the first of it's kind.

I don't want to be a doomsday nutcase, but I am deeply scared about the world we live in. I'm not scared of life ending - I'm scared about catastrophic economic collapse. Something that can shake the world more than a 10.0 earthquake, a worldwide wipe out of retirement savings, financial institutions, and debt/credit.

Grandpa Bouchard, my mom's dad, was nearly vibrating a few months back because he was so excited about the massive collapses he predicted would be coming in the near future. He was never specific, but he felt like many banks would fail and we might just see times not-so-different than those during the Great Depression. He was envious that I was young enough to experience it, learn from it, and make it out on the other side someday. I guess it is possible that much of what is remaining of his retirement savings could get wiped out. I certainly hope not because if that turns out to be the case then the Average Joe will be in a much worse predicament.

I was reading a few articles and they didn't scare me - but that's because I already scared myself by wildly speculating what could happen.

So many of the banks out there are interconnected such that the rapid failing of a few could bring down the whole lot of them. The Fed pretty much had to bailout AIG a few days ago. If they didn't I think things could have quickly become exponentially worse.

It's no wonder my favorite commodity (silver) has spiked (along with gold, oil, etc) - these things are considered "safe" thus many are buying them up because they don't know exactly what stock will lose them their life savings next. At least gold and silver have a REAL value to fall back on...

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Monday, September 15, 2008
  Convincing You About Silver
It doesn't seem like you are all convinced that silver is a good thing yet. Think again.

I already presented my case by showing that industrial use is growing every year (after all, silver is the most reflective, conductive, (etc) of the pliable precious metals). The world's existing supply has nearly been depleted. One of the richest sultans or oil czars out there could actually buy all of the known silver in the world (if they wanted to). Very little silver exists, it's as simple as that.

However, that article I linked to has something even more interesting to say:
Let me state that clearly - one (maybe two) U.S. bank holds a net 36% share of the entire COMEX silver market. The same one or two U.S. banks hold 82% of the total commercial net short position. This is a concentration that is unprecedented; maybe double or triple or more what the Hunt Brothers held on the long side in 1980. Without these, one or two traders, there would hardly be any commercial silver short position at all. This makes the big concentrated short a danger to everyone, including the market itself. That’s why the regulators must act now.

This bank(s) will probably go out of business (is it JP Morgan/Chase?) because it will simply not be able to buy out all of the shorts it now owns. That may not make perfect sense to you, but this is a way to sort of think about it: One unlucky bank owes the world massive amounts of the not-readily-available silver, and when push comes to shove it will simply be unable to pay up. When it makes the attempt silver's value in dollars should sharply increase.

The gamble is worth it! Worst case it's an even trade, best case you make a pile of money.

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